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We are going short GBPUSD at 1.2570, targeting a move back down to the May lows circa 1.2160.

Momentum has stalled in the pair around the 1.2600 area, as we flagged in our TechTalks piece on the currency last week. Given that this appears to have exhausted attempts to move higher, the break lower today (down 0.66%) appears to be confirmation to us that the pair is heading lower.

From a fundamental point of view, concern around the EU oil ban has provided a kick higher for USD. Economic headwinds in the UK are well reported on, so we see this as a natural way to play this theme.

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